Saturday, February 20, 2010

Stimulus is cause of Inflation

I am not an economist, nor an expert in finance management of the government. I however try to project my feelings. Liquidity crisis or Sub Prime Crisis occurred in USA and other European countries. How did it affect Indian economy in the year 2008 which forced Indian Government to sanction stimulus package in line with what Obama did in USA.I am unable to understand it. Can anyone help me?

I came to know that since FII were withdrawing money from stock market, India’s economy has been shaken. It means our great miracle economy of the world depends on FII fund and survives due to FII fund.

Some intelligent persons tell that due to financial problems in USA, they had blocked payment of exports made by Indian businessmen. This resulted in liquidity crisis in many countries. Some says that export of goods has suffered a lot.

Is it true that export proceeds of goods exported to USA or any other countries were stopped by importing countries?

If not how did it result in liquidity crisis? When foreign countries stop import, real problem may arise in selling exportable goods in domestic market.

If export proceeds were really stopped by importing nations like USA, government could have been justified in sanctioning financial package for such affected exporters or manufacturers, but not justified in allowing benefit to all.

CRR and SLR were reduced to release liquidity for banks. Is it justified to provide such liquidity (interest free fund) to all banks whether they were associated with affected exporters or manufacturers or not?

Even if it is considered that release of liquidity or relaxation in tax in general without discriminating the real victim of said sub prime crisis of USA was justified, the matter of vital concern is whether government has ensured that affected units have actually benefited in any way from the said stimulus package.

Has government ensured that domestic demand of exportable goods has been created to compensate loss caused due to stoppage of exports?

If domestic demand has not increased, how the said affected units have utilized the stimulus package and how they could maintain the same turnover as they used to exhibit through export proceeds?

Has government tried to ascertain the proportion of stimulus package released for banks used for growth of manufacturing or export sector and what proportion invested in MF or parked in RBI at Repo rate to earn interest or dividend?

Is it not true that excess of fund provided to business units, traders, manufacturers and exporters resulted in huge hoarding, black-marketing and abnormal profit making?

If it is true, government should admit that the current price rise is nothing but the making of the government.

Income of poor people did not rise but prices showed relentlessly rise and this resulted in considerable erosion in purchasing capacity of poor and middleclass families. As a result demand of the consumer goods at grass root level has sharply come down.

Had the government avoided stimulus package, the exportable goods could have come in the domestic price at reasonable price and demand could have gone up to a considerable height and the end result could have given a boost to manufacturers and traders.

Further the government could have used the fund released through stimulus package in carrying out additional public investment to create additional demand and additional employment opportunities.

If there is a little bit relevance in points raised by me I think government should not hesitate in withdrawing stimulus package in gradual and comfortable manner. This will help in combating inflation and ease the burden of poor to a good extent.

If liquidity from banks is withdrawn, banks will not invest in MF, will not park surplus fund in RBI to earn interest at repo rate and at least not opt for sub-PLR lending to corporate or to real estate sector which benefits none other than upper class of the society.

Banks will be forced to mobilize deposit at some higher rate which will benefit poor and middle class families and pensioners to a greater extent. If lending rate to corporate goes a little bit higher, if rate for housing loan or loan for car goes higher I am very much confident and the experience of pre-reformation era reaffirms my belief that sale of these luxurious goods will not come down and neither nay corporate sector will stop their activities on account of little rise in borrowing rates.

It is ironical that the government which is talking of social inclusion to attract Indian voters is also talking of merger of banks or infusion of fresh capital into PSU banks to enable them to compete with global banks which caused crisis in USA and other countries. When they plead consolidation of banks in raising exposure limit of the banks they perhaps forget the interest of common men or the issue of social inclusion.

Can I conclude now that the fear of global recession in India was artificial and virtual and maintenance of growth rate achieved by dint of the said stimulus package is also imaginary, unreal and willful exaggerated to hide the faulty policy and faulty execution of government’s good policies?



Danendra Jain
Ganaraj Choumuhani
Agartala 799001
18th Feb 2009

Thursday, February 18, 2010

Price rise and Stimulus Package

I am not an economist, nor an expert in finance management of the government. I however try to project my feelings. Liquidity crisis or Sub Prime Crisis occurred in USA and other European countries. How did it affect Indian economy in the year 2008 which forced Indian Government to sanction stimulus package in line with what Obama did in USA.

Is it true that export proceeds of goods exported to USA or any other countries were stopped by importing countries?

If not how did it result in liquidity crisis? When foreign countries stops import , real problem may arise in selling exportable goods in domestic market.

If export proceeds were really stopped by importing nations like USA, government could have been justified in sanctioning financial package for such affected exporters or manufacturers, but not justified in allowing benefit to all.

CRR and SLR were reduced to release liquidity for banks. Is it justified to provide such liquidity (interest free fund) to all banks whether they were associated with affected exporters or manufacturers or not?

Even if it is considered that release of liquidity or relaxation in tax in general without discriminating the real victim of said sub prime crisis of USA was justified, the matter of vital concern is whether government has ensured that affected units have actually benefited in any way from the said stimulus package.

Has government ensured that domestic demand of exportable goods has been created to compensate loss caused due to stoppage of exports?

If domestic demand has not increased, how the said affects units have utilized the stimulus package and how they could maintain the same turnover as they used to exhibit through export proceeds?

Has government tried to ascertain the proportion of stimulus package released for banks used for growth of manufacturing or export sector and what proportion invested in MF or parked in RBI at Repo rate to earn interest or dividend?

Is it not true that excess of fund provided to business units, traders, manufacturers and exporters resulted in huge hoarding, black-marketing and abnormal profit making?

If it is true, government should admit that the current price rise is nothing but the making of the government.

Income of poor people did not rise but prices showed relentless rise and this resulted in considerable erosion in purchasing capacity of poor and middleclass families. As a result demand of the consumer goods at grass root level has sharply come down.

Had the government avoided stimulus package, the exportable goods could have come in the domestic price at reasonable price and demand could have gone up to a considerable height and the end result could have given a boost to manufacturers and traders.

Further the government could have used the fund released through stimulus package in carrying out additional public investment to create additional demand and additional employment opportunities.

If there is a little bit relevance in points raised by me I think government should not hesitate in withdrawing stimulus package in gradual and comfortable manner. This will help in combating inflation and ease the burden of poor to a good extent.

If liquidity from banks is withdrawn, banks will not invest in MF, will not park surplus fund in RBI to earn interest at repo rate and at least not opt for sub-PLR lending to corporate or to real estate sector which benefits none other than upper class of the society.

Banks will be forced to mobilize deposit at some higher rate which will benefit poor and middle class families and pensioners to a greater extent. If lending rate to corporate goes a little bit higher, if rate for housing loan or loan for car goes higher I am very much confident and the experience of pre-reformation era reaffirms my belief that sale of these luxurious goods will not come down and neither nay corporate sector will stop their activities on account of little rise in borrowing rates.

Can I conclude now that the fear of global recession in India was artificial and maintenance of growth rate achieved by dint of the said stimulus package is also imaginary, unreal and willful exaggerated to hide the faulty policy and faulty execution of government’s good policies?



Danendra Jain
Ganaraj Choumuhani
Agartala 799001
18th Feb 2009

Saturday, February 13, 2010

Sonia Gandhi

Arbitrary promotion and whimsical transfer is the root cause of rampant corruption and culture of flattery to superiors. Culture of flattery to bosses and tendency to become Yesman of Ministers, MPs and MLAs is the root cause of all maladies prevailing in the society. Every employee in our country knows the bitter truth that only those who are yesmen of bosses can get elevation in their career or get cream and comfortable posting.

Most of MLS, MP and Ministers have accumulated properties worth many crores of rupees. Department of vigilance or CBI or Anti corruption cell or Economic offenders cell are silent spectators.

So many IAS and IPS officers have been found indulged in corrupt practices only because they have got the blessings of their mentor Ministers.

So many bank officers and executives have properties worth crores of rupees, which is far more than their total earning in their entire tenure. It is possible only because there is practically none to look into corrupt practices prevailing in the bank at higher level.

When Head of any department or office is corrupt, or when any minister in the government is corrupt it will be foolish to imagine of healthy culture down the line.
It is very difficult to survive with dignity when the boss is corrupt and when boss likes flattery.
Only when boss loves real performance, employees feel delighted in working sincerely.

When real performers are awarded, there will be positive motivation. On the contrary if corrupt is promoted and given good posting, it is but natural that people will be tempted to toe the line of boss even if it is wrong and unethical and against the interest of the organization

As long as we are unable to provide a reasoning based transfer and merit based promotion and as long as the wrong doers are not punished by either head of the department or by the courts we cannot imagine of stopping corrupt practices prevailing in the system and spreading like cancer in the society.

Old proverb survival for the fittest no more holds good. Now a days survival is possible only for the person who is well versed in flattery to bosses, who can earn money through ill methods and share the same with his bosses.

The bitter truth is that there is no foolproof method of providing perfectly merit-based promotion or seniority based promotion in any office. None of the promotion processes can ensure justice to all, justice to the organization and discomfort to none as long as the person responsible for carrying out the promotion process is dishonest and corrupt. When protectors become destructors, damage to society cannot be stopped,

One easy way to stop whimsical transfer and arbitrary promotion is to maintain transparency and abolish the requirement of passing through Interview for existing employees for getting promotion. Interview is such a test where Interviewers can easily spoil the candidates career.

During interview, key role is played by elements like bribe, gift, sources, godfathers, and flattery possessed by employee whose performance is assessed during interview. When Interviewer desires to promote an employee he raises easy questions or do not raise any question and give higher marks and on the contrary he may raises toughest and irrelevant questions before the candidate to reject him in the promotion process.

The interviewer as per his whims and fancies gives marks for interview and unfortunately there is no method to penalize such malicious interviewers or the interview team made of birds of the same feather. There is hardly any place for merit in the mind of Interview panel and this why whimsical promotions take place and a reign of injustice and that of corruption spreads like epidemic and is followed by inefficiency, frustration, depression and what not.

Last but not the least; our courts cannot deliver justice in decades. This eliminates the fear from the minds of interviewer and the aggrieved employee is constrained to bear with the rejection in promotion process. Justice delayed is justice denied. And when there is no hope of justice even from court, aggrieved person in promotion process is left with no alternative other than digesting the poison of injustice.

It is an open secret in our society that victim is afraid of lodging complain in police department against any type of criminal. Not to speak of promotions, management can torture an employee by using his power of transfer and posting an employee in the name of exigencies as per his sweet will.

I therefore request you to take immediate steps to ensure merit based transparent promotion and reasoning based transfers and posting in all offices. Only one remedy to cure disease of corruption is to award honest performers and sideline corrupt performers. Only the bearer knows where the shoe pinches is a right proverb in this regard.

IN BANKING INDUSTRY THERE ARE HUNDREDS OF OFFICERS WHO ARE FACING TRANSFER EVEN TWICE OR THRICE A YEAR WHEREAS OFFICERS SITTING IN METROS ARE SITTING IN ONE TOWN SINCE JOINING SAY FOR TWO OR THREE DECADES.
EVEN POLICY OF RURAL POSTING IS MISUSED BY THE MANAGEMENT TO ISOLATE NON FLATTERERS .
EVEN POLICY OF POSTING OUTSIDE STATE AFTER PROMOTION IS MISUSED TO FAVOUR THE PEOPLE OF WEST BENGAL OR THAT OF MAHARASHTRA.
POLICY OF NORTH EAST POSTING IS USED TO ISOLATE NON FLATTERERS. POLICY OF TRANSFER FOR NON PERFORMERS IS ALSO USED BY THE EXECUTIVE TO KEEP NON FLATTERES AWAY.
NOWHERE AND NONE OF POLICIES ARE USED TO PROMOTE THE CULTURE OF PERFORMANCE.
AS SUCH IT IS COMPARATIVELY BENEFICIAL TO ELIMINATE THE ELEMENTS OF DISCRETION OR DISCRIMINATION IN THE INTERNAL PROMOTION PROCESS AND TRANSFER POLICY.THE MORE TRANSPARENT WILL BE THE POLICIES , THE LESS WILL BE QUANTUM OF FLATTERY IN THE MIND OF WORKING OFFICERS.
EXECUTIVES WHO ARE INDULGED IN CORRUPT PRACTICES WHILE RELEASING ORDER OF TRANSFER OF PUTTING THEIR SIGNATURE ON PROMOTION ORDERS MUST BE SUITABLY PUNISHED SO THAT RECURRENCE OF SUCH MALPRACTICE DO NOT TAKE PLACE.
JUSTICE DELAYED IS JUSTICE DENIED. YOU CANNOT IGNORE THE RESENTMENT, FRUSTRATION AND DEPRESSION PREVAILING IN THE FIELD LEVEL FOR LONG WITHOUT INVITING STRIKE AND LARGE SCALE REVOLT AND RAMPAGE

Danendra Jain
Agartala

Wednesday, January 13, 2010

HAD I BEEN A MINISTER

If I become Minister, What will be my strategy to stop price rise?

I will Increase production at farm level, enforce efficient distribution system, ensure safe keeping of buffer stock, tightening of measures against hoarders, blackmarketeers and profiteers, put restriction on traders who create artificial crisis monitoring market trend of prices every day through public relation officers posted in each district, and if possible fix prices where prices are going up and up without any reasoning, stop future trading in commodities and completely ban all speculative activities. I cannot allow exploitation of poor in the name of reformation and privatization or liberalization. I believe excess of freedom is also harmful for any nation and necessary regulation of activities is in the health of the economy and social peace. I will ensure that all officers from top to bottom are vigilant on price movement because it is prices of essential commodities which can make or mar the career of any person.

Last but not the least I will try to stop all unwarranted talks and promises on prices control without making it practically possible. I believe in doing first and informing later and I hate politicians who talk much but do nothing. I hate media who make so much hue and cries, fire Ministers, show useless fierce interviews with politicians but do nothing to expose the real culprits behind unabated and sky rocketing price ruse. Individual shout in street corner meetings or on road and media cries on TV channels but government keeps eyes and ears closed and enjoy to the maximum possible extent.

Is it true that for every selfish leader there is a dedicated leader?


Yes in India it is an open secret and common in all offices and in all departments. All bosses and all top leaders at all levels have a dedicated leader called as Chamcha in common language. Similarly all political heavy weights have dedicated team of political workers behind him and it is only such yes-men who can move ahead in their career .One who is actual worker, performer, real patriot, devotee of God and lover of the country cannot survive and cannot imagine prospering. This is the main reason behind all corrupt activities and all crimes taking place in the country. This is the reason that criminals are moving free without fear of punishment and innocent person are made victim, facing frustration and depression in their life.

Should anyone demand resignation from Mr. Sharad Pawar for current price rise?

I cannot ask for resignation and neither can I suggest this. If the minister is ineffective he should be sacked and his position as MP should also be dismissed. Fresh election should be there. It will be ridiculous if Sharad Pawar resigns as Agriculture Minister and UPA makes him defense minister. Undoubtedly he will spoil Defense ministry.

When Lalu was charge sheeted by CBI, he resigned from CM post of Bihar. But later he became Railway Minister at Center. This is not the solution.

Shiv Raj Patil was inefficient and if he is made governor of a state what will be the fate of that state. Similarly it is possible that Mr. Pawar is offered the post of President by UPA. Question is therefore how to punish an erring Minister in such a way that none of the minister dare to be lazy and ineffective. A simple officer cannot survive in any office if he is not performing well, how a minister in our country is allowed to move up and up even if he does not perform. But it is unfortunate that the post of Minister as also all top posts in government departments have become a tradable commodity in Indian politics.

Danendra Jain,
Agartala
13th January 2010

Friday, January 8, 2010

Price rise is due to neta-traders nexus

Prices of all edible food grains are continuously rising. In past three four decades I think price never shoot up so much high and so much quickly and speedily in the past, even during Indira’s rule. Prices are increasing brakeless and unabated. It seems more ridiculous when government claims that it is watchful and monitoring properly the trend of price. It gives the message that political leaders do not mean what they say.

Reason behind current price in my opinion is undoubtedly o Neta –Traders and Neta-share broker nexus and it is be beyond the control of the government or the administration. Mr. Sharad Pawar openly says prices will go up. When Ministers issues such irresponsible statement, market overreacts and it is natural. Even opposition parties are silent, almost silent. It shows there are also black sheep in opposition camp. In parliamentary system it is only opposition which can save people of India from misrule of ruling government. If opposition parties also become silent spectator of rising prices, people are helpless.

Media makes so much hue and cries through TV and print media every now and then. But there is none in the camp of ruling or opposition camp to bother. Ruling government has got a lame excuse and they always talk of global warming or global economic slowdown or bad climate and easily they hide the mistakes of Indian system and also underlying corruption, unethical profit making through hoarding and arbitrary fixing of rates on all commodities . Opposing parties due to their internal problems have also turned deaf ear to painful price rise.

Business house are however very much clever and they keep good relation with all political parties. Obviously leaders of all parties enjoy and it is only common men who suffer the most. Leaders of UPA government blame state governments for current price rise and accuse them for spurt in prices. But they forget that prices are rising even in those states where UPA is in power. When government is not bothered, let the public suffer and revolt against price rise.

Minister of external affairs advised students not to prefer education in Australia because it is not in their control to stop violence going on in Australia against Indians unabated. Now it is also possible that Manmohan Singh, Prime Minister of India will advise the common men to avoid buying commodities which are not in their reach and remain content with grass and tea leaves.

Danendra Jain
Agartala
9th January 2010

Thursday, January 7, 2010

Is selling of PSU only remedy

It is always advisable that office bearers of an organization are changed periodically in a democratic system. At least there should be change of person every two or three years for the post of Secretary and the President in the same way as Branch head or Regional head or Zonal head or CEO of a bank is changed every two – three years.

In a democratic country like India every political parties have been changing their Presidents periodically. Prominent Communist parties change their party president every two years. Banking Industry has inherited communist culture, but it is disheartening to mention here that staff unions and associations in these banks are dependent on a few leaders who have been occupying top posts for decades. Political parties, trust or an organization or Bank union or association of officers who consider any person indispensable on top posts are really too weak to survive for long and undoubtedly prone to corrupt practices. These organizations in fact have not developed second line of management.

Even a financial Institute cannot prosper with quality and remain in good health if the persons posted at responsible and sensitive posts are not altered periodically. Whereever the same person hold sensitive posts in a bank for a longer period it is found that the bank's intrinsic value and overall quality of its assets suffers continuous erosion and the disease of corruption spread like cancer in the system. It is such organization where whimsical promotions and whimsical posting takes place.

It is these organizations where good persons are shunted away and bad persons are promoted and placed at cream posts so that the corrupt lobby is not questioned by anyone. It is under such bad administration that person like Rathore goes on getting promotion and respectable posting whereas on the other persons like Ruchika are forced to bear with injustice meted out to them. By the time realities of corrupt person get exposed by grace of God, it is too late. Justice delayed is justice denied. There are many Rathore like executives in banking Industry too who have been getting uninterrupted promotions and getting one after other elevation in their career (at the cost of good performers) despite the fact that there were indulged in corrupt practices and they caused huge loss to banks.

Keeping in view above-mentioned bitter truth of the organization I demand those office bearers of officers association as also employees unions in all banks must be changed every two - three years. If Bank employees fail to ensure this healthy culture, perpetuation of injustice cannot be stopped and frustration among good workers will continue to rise ultimately jeopardizing the health of the bank.

I hope sensible, experienced, educated and prudent class of officers will apply their wisdom and take all possible steps to stop monopoly and dictatorial attitude of certain office bearers who have in course of time become indispensable and who are eating away fruits of hard labour done by real workers. Second line of leadership must be developed in all organization for achieving sustainable quality growth of not only assets but also that of human capital.

Danendra Jain
Ganaraj Choumuhani
Agartala
7th January 2009

Friday, September 25, 2009

Bank's Festival Offer on Home loans

Before 1991 banks used to charge higher rate of interest for higher amount of loans. The logic behind such approach was that rich businessmen could afford higher rate of interest. Small businessmen can compete in the market with wholesale dealers and bulk manufacturers only when they are given certain discounts on interest rates. This philosophy worked upto 1991 when social objective was real and truly followed by bankers and this was the sole target of the government too. Banks were nationalized in the year 1969 so that poorest among the poor can also approach banks for keeping their surplus fund and also to seek loan for their business and personal requirements. Banks were opened in villages so that it is made available in even remotest villages and its reach become wider and wider up to even downtrodden villagers and even scavengers in the towns. All types of facilities and rebates were meant for poor and middle class.

In the modern days i.e. after 1991or you can says in the age of economic reformation, liberalization and globalization, the approach of the government and also the bankers have completely changed. After 1991 social objective has in fact become a mask to conceal their hidden agenda of earning more and more profits. Now big businessmen can be given loans in hundreds and thousands of crores rupees at sub PLR rates whereas a small trader cannot expect loan below sub PLR rates. Exporters can be given bulk loan at subsidized rates. There is neck to neck competition among bankers to reduce their lending rates for home loan and car loan seekers. The more loans they ask for, the more discount they will get. All types of infrastructure benefits are now extended to business giants, and not small or middle sized businessmen.

It is ironical that banks even now boast for fulfilling social objective. Yes, they achieve the required ratio of lending in priority sector, but not by making fresh disbursement to small and middle borrowers but by including bigger and bigger loans in the domain of priority sector or by enlarging the activities in the domain of small borrowers. In this modern era even credit facilities upto Rs. 5.00 crores is considered as loan under priority sector.

Home loan up to Rs.50.00 lacs are considered as priority lending at lesser and lesser rates of interest. Here it is worthwhile to mention that loan of Rs.30 lacs can be taken only when house is of the value of at least Rs.40.00 (truly speaking such house may of Rs.50.00 to Rs.60 lacs keeping in mind the black money paid for each home sale). Car loan is given by banks at low rates and various discounts are being allowed to car buyers during festival season. But the million dollar question is who can afford buying a car? Can a common man (95% of population) afford a car?

Now can any one imagine that poor or middle class person having less than three lacs rupees as annual income can afford home loan of more than Rs.12 lacs because maximum permissible finance for home loan is four time of annual income in most of the banks.?

Can a person of income less than rupees three or four lacs can dream of buying a house of Rss.30.00 lacs (including black money) and can he afford repayment of loan of Rs.20.00 lacs by legal source of income?

Obviously banks are reducing lending rates for rich persons, they may be home loan seekers or buyer of costly car or they may be big trade houses, big exporters or large corporate houses.

It is not only banks which are crazy for big fishes. Even government is cutting tax or making such policies that cost on freezes, computers, laptops, mobiles, cars, scooter, wine, air travels is gradually coming down. On the contrary prices of essential commodities which are lifeline for poor and middle class people are sky rocketing day by day. Prices of potato,onion, tomato, green vegetables, pulses, wheat, rice, sugar, milk .and many more such things on which lie the survival of 95% of Indian population are rising up and up, not because of less production but because of faulty policy of the government. Hoarding, black marketing and profit making has become the accepted habit of rich traders and manufacturers.

Businessmen who have the capacity to store the goods of essential use can earn any profit by hoarding the same because government has given them unlimited freedom. Even education has become so costly that common men cannot imagine of quality higher education or even primary education in towns. Common men cannot imagine of cheap health care in government run hospitals and they have to pay unreasonable big amount for treatment in private nursing homes.

Who will take stern action?
Who will stop future trading in commodities?
Who will prevent hoarding and profit making in food items?
Who will prevent bankers extending credit facilities to rich and affluent class at sub PLR?

Obviously none. Because even Manmohan Singh, the Prime Minister of India tells that there is corruption rampant all where in the country, even he accepts that development fund given by government to different agencies do not reach in the hand of poor. Even PM tells that there is a need to check price rise immediately .But he is helpless and unable to prevent price rise. He cannot keep prices in control because he has given unlimited freedom to traders in the name of reformation. He also imagines just like a help less poor, like a common man and like average Indian imagines and curse the system.

After all who will cure the system when everyone cry and cry only against the cancerous disease of mal administration, corrupt and inefficient government machinery?

Who cares for poor?
Of course Bankers do not care at all and neither can they afford doing so.
If anyone is interested to know the reality I would like RBI to submit data on following two points so that educated class and so called economists and social reformers can understand the reality of social agenda of the bank.

Loans outstanding up to Rs. 5.00 lacs( including home loan , education loan, trade loan or agricultural loan ) as on 31.12.2005. 2006, 2007, 2008, 2009 and as on date and disbursed during these years .These data will tell the real story of social objective and tell whether poor and middle class men are really getting loans from banks.

Secondly to know the amount of bulk financing made by banks at Sub PLR ,year wise disbursement made by banks to rich people in the range of Rs.10 crores and above can also be obtained to compare the same with that made to common men up to Rs.5.00 lacs.

Danendra Jain
Agartala
26th September 2009